Fairfax CA Real Estate

So I ran a bunch of numbers on July 28th, as I had noticed and uptick of sales in hillside homes in Fairfax, and I thought it would be a good time to take stock of the market with a mid-summer report.  I didn’t do anything with the data for a couple of weeks, so I had to run it again today on August 14th.

It’s interesting how little has changed in the last 17 days…shall we call a little bit of consistency comforting?

The good news for you hillside homeowners is that, from my last report on June 11 until now, a bunch of hillside homes have sold.  So far this year, 10 homes that can be classified as “hillside” (as opposed to “hilltop”) homes have sold.  This represents appx 21% of the total homes sold.  When I did my last report on June 11 that number was only 3 homes representing 10% of the market.  The total number hillside homes on the market currently for sale as a percentage of total homes on the market has remained the same:  33%. 

So going from a 10% to a 21% share of homes sold is definitely a step in the right direction for the hillside homes. In addition, there have been some more expensive hillside homes sell, including 907 Bolinas Road for $1.065M and 55 Hillside for $799k.  So that’s great news!

The bad news is the continued softness in the prices for hillside homes.  In 2010, the avg cost/sq ft of a Fairfax hillside home is $350/sq ft.  This compares to $437/sq ft in the flats.  So you pay a 25% premium to live in the flats in Fairfax.  Another way to look at it is that you get a 20% discount to move up the hill.

Let’s hope this activity trend continues, as the hillside market represents a third of our market here in Fairfax That market needs to improve for the overall market to improve.  Selling through some of these homes will reduce the inventory and have a positive effect on prices across the community.

Speaking of the overall market, we are at the end of a seasonally slow time. The real estate market in Marin is very quiet over the summer, and it picks up again for our “second season” in the fall.

So far this year, and as I shared in my Spring 2010 report in June, the sales numbers are up and the prices are flat.  Up until today, August 14, we’ve seen 47 single family homes sell in Fairfax.  This compares favorably with the same period last year, where we had seen only 35 homes sell.  So total sales continue to be up, and the number is up 34% over last year.  This number is continuing to improve, as on June 11 the year-over-year sales increase was 30%.

YTD the value numbers are interesting.  For the 47 single family homes sold, the average price is down 4% to $650,000 and the median price is down 9% to $599k.  This does not tell the whole story though.  YTD the average cost per square foot of living space, a very useful metric, is $417/sq ft.  This compares to $442/sq YTD on this date last year, down 6%. 

So what gives? 

I still say the numbers are flat. 

At this point last year, just 2 “big time fixer” (big work needed just to move in) sold.  This compares to 9 houses that I would describe as “big time fixer” this year.  That’s a 350% increase in ‘big time fixers”.  Why all the super fixers?  I don’t know, but it’s important to know that these nine dumpy places have affected the overall numbers.  Keep this in mind.  I still say the market is flat, and more expensive homes are selling much better this year.  Net-net, just not as many nice houses, and this has played out throughout Marin.  These dumpy places really hit the cost of the market.  People with nice houses are keeping them. 

One last thing, and that’s distressed properties.  So far in 2010, there have been 6 distressed sales, 13% of the market.  This compares to 3 distressed out of 35 sales total sales, 9%, during the same period in 2009, so those numbers have increased.

Overall, I remain optimistic about the prospects for Fairfax real estate.  There are definitely people out there looking for homes, but they either want a great deal on hopefully a great house.  If the house has some issues, or if it’s on the hillside, the buyers look for huge value.  I see the market remaining flat for prices, and up for total homes sold for the rest of 2010.  I think we might start to see some appreciation in the second half of 2011.

Rates are killer right now, I’ve seen rates for 15-year loans under 4% recently.  If you have not refinanced, don’t miss out on this.

Fairfax continues to be one of the most desirable neighborhoods in Marin County. 2009 was another active year for Fairfax real estate, with 65 single family homes sold, a 12.3% increase vs. 2008.

Watch a video version of the Fairfax Market Report for a detailed discussion, or click on the links below to view the report for each of the Fairfax neighborhoods outlined in the map to the right. Also refer to the section below, Fairfax CA Real Estate Market Conditions - Year End 2009.

Bothin Canyon 2009 Market Report 2008 Market Report 2007 Market Report Manor Hill 2009 Market Report 2008 Market Report 2007 Market Report Marinda Oaks, Ridgeway Park, Fairfax Heights 2009 Market Report 2008 Market Report 2007 Market Report Central 2009 Market Report 2008 Market Report 2007 Market Report Cascade Canyon 2009 Market Report 2008 Market Report 2007 Market Report Deer Park 2009 Market Report 2008 Market Report 2007 Market Report

Fairfax CA Real Estate Market Conditions Year End 2009

In 2009 in Fairfax, we had 65 Single family homes sell and 2 townhomes.  For the SFH market, 65 homes represents  a 14% increase from the number of homes sold in 2008.  This was in spite of a very slow start to 2009…in fact in January 2009 only one home sold in Fairfax.

In 2009 the average price of a single family home in Fairfax was $677,484, which was down 12.1% from $771k in 2008, and down 22.1% from the peak of the market in 2005

A better number, however, is the median price.  In 2009 in Fairfax, the median priced home was $660,000, which was down 7.7% from 2008, and was down 17% from the peak of the market in 2005.

The loan market at the beginning of 2009 and the jumbo-conforming limit moving down from $729k to $629k was a huge factor in Fairfax, and it was almost impossible to sell a home over $650k during the first four months of 2009.  After the jumbo conforming limit was raised back to $729k as part of the stimulus plan, sales up to $750k picked up, but things were still difficult above that price for the remainder of the year.  $800—900k homes were tough, and over $1M very difficult.  In fact, only 4 homes over $1M sold in 2009, compared with 12 homes above $1M back in the go-go days of 2005. 

First-time buyers were the buying public last year in Fairfax.  As such, the median and average price of homes were affected, simply because there were no ‘move-up’ buyers to counter the lower priced homes.  It’s also creating a baby boom in Fairfax.  In Novato they are sadly talking about closing some schools due to budget constraints.  In Fairfax, the big town discussion right now is about where we are going to build a new school.  Fairfax is super-popular for young families, kids everywhere, it’s a great vibe!  Come check out the Fairfax Festival parade, it’s 2/3 kids!

Another segmentation of the market was the difference of selling homes in the flat areas of town vs homes in the hills.  Net-net, homes in the flats sold briskly, and homes in the hills were much more difficult to sell.  This was largely due to the market being constrained to first-time buyers and their needs for family and kid-friendly properties.  Homes in the flat areas of downtown Fairfax, Deer Park, the Cascades, Bothin Canyon and Oak Manor had buyers ready to go.  Hillside homes were chasing a much smaller population of buyers, and unfortunately required more aggressive pricing.  Neighborhoods like Manor Hill, and the hills of Cascade Canyon and Deer Park fit this description

Distressed properties played a role in the Fairfax market last year, but to a lesser extent than elsewhere in the North Bay and certainly elsewhere in California.  Of the 65 single family home sales, 10 or about 15% were in some state of distress…7short sales  and 3 foreclosed, bank-owned properties traded.  Of these ten homes, only four of them could be described as purchased at the ‘top of the market’, others had refinanced and taken money out.  People in Fairfax have mostly kept up with their house payments

I think when we look back, history will likely show that the late spring of 2009 will be the low water mark for Fairfax home values.  The under $650k market is very strong right now, and my expectation is that we will see some stability in the prices of homes up to about $850-900k later on this year.  Above that, the Fairfax market will continue be difficult, perhaps into 2011 for the higher-end homes in our community.

If you read the Marin Independent Journal, you might have seen the article on 02/07/2010 about how Marin home values have fared in the past decade.  The good news, county-wide, homes increased in value by 25.2% in that 10-year period.  Leading the pack?  Fairfax!!!! With an average appreciation of 47.6% in that decade, Fairfax was the # 1 town in Marin for overall return on your investment (from the meeting, I shared the San Anselmo number which was 28.4% increase).  Contrast that with the stock market:  Over the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down appx 8.7%.  So take heart, Fairfax!  We are the newly minted “best investment” in Marin Real Estate.