From Pacific Union International Chief Economist Selma Hepp – April 13, 2018
Marin County’s housing market followed the typical seasonal pattern in the first quarter of 2018, with a slow January and February, then a jump in March. March sales, however, were constrained by a lack of homes for sale, which have been continually declining. Overall in the first quarter, there were about 16 percent more sales of homes priced at more than $1 million than during the same period last year.
Nevertheless, buyer eagerness amid low supply has translated into a strong increase in median home prices, and especially robust appreciation for homes priced below $1 million. Marin County continues to lure buyers from the Wine Country who may have been affected by the fall wildfires.
Buyers are also slightly more aggressive, and relatively more homes sold over the asking price than during the same period last year at a faster pace. Buyer competition picked up notably for homes priced above $3 million, and half of those properties sold for more than asking price, compared with 18 percent at that price point that sold over the asking price in the first quarter of 2017.
Looking Forward: While strong open-house traffic in March suggests that homebuyers in Marin County communities are eager to re-enter the market, a lack of homes sale may hold back sales during the spring season. Buyers do not seem yet to be affected by rising mortgage rates or the tax-reform package.
Defining Marin County: Our real estate markets in Marin County include the cities of Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon. Sales data in the charts includes single-family homes in these communities.
Homebuyer competition in the Bay Area remains as intense as ever this spring. Pacific Union Chief Economist Selma Hepp offers a detailed analysis of local housing market conditions in March.
Sales of homes priced higher than $1 million increased by 30 percent in the Bay Area in the first quarter, with even stronger gains in the South Bay and Silicon Valley.
Demand for homes priced above $3 million remains robust, jumping by 45 percent from last year’s first quarter.
Inventory has declined on average by 10 percent to 20 percent on an annual basis in the last year.
In San Francisco, new listings are down across all price ranges, for an overall 23 percent decline.
Sonoma, Contra Costa, and San Mateo counties saw slight increases in new listings, though mostly in higher price ranges.
Newly constructed condominium inventory in San Francisco is at half the level from a year ago, with about 600 units on the market.
Appreciation soared in March, with the median price in the Bay Area increasing by 19 percent year over year.
Santa Clara County’s median price jumped by 34 percent year over year in March.
The share of homes selling for more than asking price reached a high at 74 percent for the Bay Area and 86 percent in Santa Clara County. Sonoma County saw the lowest number of premiums, with 52 percent of homes selling for more than asking price.
Elegant and inviting 5 beds/3.5 baths home overlooking some of the most beautiful views in Novato. Each room is spacious and well-appointed, but retains an intimate and cozy feel. Ideal for entertaining, with a large kitchen, living & family rooms & two fireplaces inside, and terraces, patio areas, mature gardens, a pool and decks outside. Located on over a quarter acre on a quiet cul-de-sac, this is the home you’ve been waiting for.
Sold off market! Available for the first time in over 46 years. One of the very best lots in desirable Oak Manor, this was the original builder’s own custom property. 3BR/2BA home sits on a premium level lot of over 1/4 acre with all-day sun. Soaring cathedral ceilings, open floorplan, and tremendous pride of ownership. Large yard offers sparkling pool and many play areas. Just a couple of blocks from award-winning Manor School, and close to trails, the perfect home for hikers, bikers, and neighborhood lovers!
Privacy and panoramic views await at this well-constructed home in desirable Green Point! Down a quiet lane with four bedrooms and three bathrooms, pride of ownership is evident throughout. Large home on a nearly 2-acre +/- lot with quality finishes. Updated kitchen with high-end appliances, custom floors, built-ins, and high-end details everywhere. Large family room on lower level allows for separation of living spaces. 30 minutes north of San Francisco, convenient commute location, close proximity to the best of Marin. Near Stonetree golf club, wineries, hiking, biking…the best of the North Bay. Come home to Green Point, the perfect home base for your active Marin lifestyle!
This is a sweet Woodacre home with sunny southern exposure! All the privacy and views of hillside living but only one turn up Carson from the flats…easy access to Improvement Club and town. Pride of ownership is evident everywhere, this two bedroom/one bathroom property is turnkey! Soaring cathedral ceilings and big windows to bring in the valley and ridge views. Open floorplan with gleaming bamboo floors. Enjoy indoor/outdoor living on large wraparound decks. Large bonus room under house perfect for home office, studio or workshop. Well-loved gardens with fruit trees and lots of surprises. Close to trails, the perfect home to enjoy the peace and privacy of the San Geronimo Valley!
Available homes across the Bay Area were even harder to come by this May than they were last spring, with the months’ supply of inventory (MSI) dropping from one year ago in all of Pacific Union’s regions except Lake Tahoe/Truckee. Consequently, prices reached yearly peaks in Contra Costa, San Francisco, and Sonoma counties, and they matched one-year highs in Marin County.
Click on the image accompanying each of our regions below for an expanded look at local real estate activity in May.
At $1,175,000, the median home sales price in Marin County was unchanged from April, matching its yearly high. Supply increased a hair from the previous month, but with an MSI of 1.3, the market still strongly favors sellers.
Homes sold in an average of 55 days, about the same sales pace observed last May. Buyers got a bit of a break, paying 94.7 percent of original price, the least since December.
Defining Marin County: Our real estate markets in Marin County include the cities of Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon. Sales data in the adjoining chart includes single-family homes in these communities.
CONTRA COSTA COUNTY
May’s median sales price in Contra Costa County climbed just $15,000 from April, but that was enough to help it reach a yearly peak of $1,115,000. The MSI has been inching down in the region this spring and landed at 1.3 in May, its lowest level since December.
The average home sold in a brisk 19 days – unchanged from April and tying a yearly low – while sellers got 101.7 percent of original price.
Defining Contra Costa County: Our real estate markets in Contra Costa County include the cities of Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek. Sales data in the adjoining chart includes single-family homes in these communities.
Sellers in the East Bay continued to enjoy big premiums, with the average property selling for 115 percent of asking price for the third straight month. The median sales price cooled almost imperceptibly, landing at $920,000.
Housing supply was slim in the East Bay in May, and properties that were available sold fast; the 0.9 MSI was the lowest since December, and homes left the market in 18 days on average.
Defining the East Bay: Our real estate markets in the East Bay region include Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705; Alameda; Albany; Berkeley; El Cerrito; Kensington; and Piedmont. Sales data in the adjoining chart includes single-family homes in these communities.
May 2015 looked almost exactly like May 2014 in Napa County if judged on the numbers alone.
The median sales price in Napa County dipped to $575,000 in May, landing exactly where it was one year ago. The sales-to-list-price ratio was also identical to last May, with buyers paying 95.4 percent of original price. And homes sold in an average of 71 days, the precise amount of time as last May.
The only statistic that differed on an annual basis was the MSI, which at 2.8 is substantially lower than it was in May 2014.
Defining Napa County: Our real estate markets in Napa County include the cities of American Canyon, Angwin, Calistoga, Napa, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena, and Yountville. Sales data in the adjoining chart includes all single-family homes in Napa County.
SAN FRANCISCO – SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES
The median sales price for a single-family home in San Francisco has been steadily climbing since January and reached another peak in May at $1,400,000. Homes in the city have also been selling at an ever-quickening pace since the beginning of the year and left the market in an average of 24 days.
San Francisco sellers continue to pull in premiums and got 110 percent of original price. At 1.4, the MSI was in the same general range as the previous month and one year ago.
SAN FRANCISCO – CONDOMINIUMS
As with single-family homes, the median sales price for a San Francisco condominium climbed to a one-year high, reaching $1,167,500. Sellers of condos also took in almost identical premiums as their single-family-home counterparts, with the average property selling for 110.4 percent of asking price.
Just as in the previous two months, the MSI remained constricted at 1.2. Condos sold in an average of 31 days, consistent with the market’s pace this spring.
The median sales price in Silicon Valley has been inching down each month since February, but at $2,625,000 it remains Pacific Union’s most expensive region. Houses have been selling for more than original price for most of the year, and in May sellers received an average of 104 percent of original price.
Inventory has been declining since January and hit a one-year low in May, with the MSI falling to 1.1. Homes sold in 21 days, similar to the pace recorded last month and one year ago.
Defining Silicon Valley: Our real estate markets in the Silicon Valley region include the cities and towns of Atherton, Los Altos (excluding county area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside. Sales data in the adjoining chart includes all single-family homes in these communities.
Along with the East Bay, the Mid-Penisula had the lowest inventory of any of our markets in May, as the MSI crept down to 0.9. This was also Pacific Union’s fastest-moving market, with buyers taking just 14 days to purchase the average property.
Although the median sales price dropped on both a monthly and annual basis to $1,400,000, homes were still in high demand, with sellers taking home almost 111 percent of asking price.
Defining the Mid-Peninsula: Our real estate markets in the Mid-Peninsula subregion include the cities of Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area). Sales data in the adjoining chart includes all single-family homes in these communities.
The median sales price in Sonoma County has been gradually rising since January and reached a one-year peak in May: $546,000. At 1.7, the MSI was unchanged from the previous month.
Properties sold in an average of 64 days and for 97 percent of original price – generally consistent with levels recorded over the previous two months.
Defining Sonoma County: Our real estate markets in Sonoma County include the cities of Cotati, Healdsburg, Penngrove, Petaluma, Rohnert Park, Santa Rosa, Sebastopol, and Windsor. Sales data in the adjoining chart includes all single-family homes and farms and ranches in Sonoma County.
Sonoma Valley’s median sales price took a sizable dip from April to finish May at $650,000, but it is still up about 20 percent on a year-over-year basis. The supply of homes has been shrinking every month thus far in 2015 and finished May at 1.8.
Properties sold in 51 days, the fastest clip since May 2014. Buyers paid 95.5 percent of original price, less than they did last month or one year ago.
Defining Sonoma Valley: Our real estate markets in Sonoma Valley include the cities of Glen Ellen, Kenwood, and Sonoma. Sales data in the adjoining chart refers to all residential properties – including single-family homes, condominiums, and farms and ranches – in these communities.
Come see my new listing, 53 Dominga Avenue, in Fairfax this Thursday, 06/11, from 10:30-2pm and Sunday, 06/14, 1pm – 4pm.
This is a sweet vintage home in downtown Fairfax. Well-maintained property with a very efficient use of space, you’ll be close to everything. This 2 Bedroom/1 Bathroom cottage offers an open floorplan with soaring ceilings, gleaming wood floors, and a cozy fireplace. Remodeled kitchen with stainless appliances and quartz countrtop, an updated bathroom, and attention to detail. Off-street parking and large shed for storage. Terrific covered back porch and entertaining patio for Marin’s indoor/outdoor living. Steps to the vibrant downtown, close to trails. Come home to Fairfax!
Enchanted living in the coveted Upper Cascades! This rarely available sunny and level premium parcel is just over 1/3 acre+/-. Main house offers country style, updated kitchen & master bath, beautifully preserved vintage floors. Bonus suite presents many possibilities for guest, studio, or home office. Well-loved mature gardens, roses, fruit trees, privacy & great light. Lots of parking, storage. 1 block to open space & trails. Come home to the Cascades!
Demand for Northern California real estate remained heavy in April, with the median home sales price reaching yearly highs in the majority of Pacific Union’s Bay Area regions. Get a complete look at how activity played out in Pacific Union’s April 2015 Real Estate Update at http://bit.ly/1zFyZH0
901 Sir Francis Drake Blvd.
Kentfield, CA 94904
ABOUT BLAINE MORRIS
As a top-producing licensed REALTOR with Pacific Union in Kentfield, California, Blaine Morris specializes in Central and Southern Marin County. Always just a phone call or email away, Blaine works seven days a week for his clients, providing them with the utmost in fast and efficient service and follow through. Whether you are searching for the home of your dreams, or thinking of selling it, Blaine can turn your dreams into reality! Behind Blaine is the strength and stability of the Central Marin office of Pacific Union, the #1 office of the #1 Brokerage in Marin County.